A no-show and a missing fuel card are different people

The candidate who never made orientation and the driver who took a unit and never brought the fuel card back both cost you a week. They are not the same hire failing twice. In the review data they almost never share a paragraph, and a screen built for one will not catch the other.

Among the reviews carriers left on CDLScan, 5.3% mention a no-show. That figure describes those reviews, not drivers in general: carriers write after a bad run, so the share tells you what shows up once someone bothers to report it.

Inside that slice, only 0.8% also mention equipment or a fuel card never returned. If the two events were independent, you would expect about 3.7% — the missing-equipment share of all reviews. The observed overlap is about a fifth of chance. Lift is 0.21. Flip the pair and 1.1% of missing-equipment reviews also mention a no-show. Same thin overlap, two bases. Rare together is not the same as impossible. It is a strong hint you are looking at two populations.

Two failures, two clocks

A no-show is an onboarding loss. You spent a ticket, a hotel, a recruiter’s week. You did not hand over a unit. The language is never showed, didn’t show, flight ticket, plane ticket, ticket never, booked flight, showed orientation.

Equipment or a fuel card never returned is an operations loss. The driver already arrived, already took a truck, and already had company property in their hands. The language is fuel card, return truck, return equipment, left equipment, refused return, didn’t return, truck yard. That is a person who sat in the seat and then walked off with what you issued.

Those clocks do not usually share a review because they do not usually share a person. The driver who never arrives cannot keep your fuel card. The driver who keeps the fuel card already showed up.

What actually rides with a no-show is the empty-chair cluster. Drugs or alcohol sit in 31.7% of no-show reviews. Paid travel with no arrival sits in 30.8%. Going unreachable sits in 13.0%. An abandoned truck sits in only 7.8% — against a 33.5% base rate, far below chance. Theft sits in 5.7%. False statements sit in 5.0%. Late deliveries sit in 4.3%. A missing fuel card is not on that list.

What actually rides with missing equipment is the walk-off-with-property cluster. An abandoned truck sits in 36.6% of those reviews. Theft or money games sit in 20.6%. Aggression sits in 16.2%. A crash or damage sits in 14.4%. Late or missed deliveries sit in 11.4%. Logbook and hours problems sit in 9.0%. Going unreachable sits in 8.1%. A no-show is not on that list.

Stay away and waste your time are a different register. In 39.6% of no-show reviews the carrier also writes a verdict. In 28.5% of missing-equipment reviews they do the same. That is a fact about how these reviews end, not a fact about the driver. Read the scene. Do not hire off the temperature of the last sentence.

The pairing that does sit together on the onboarding side is paid travel and a no-show: 30.8% of no-show reviews also mention paid travel, about five times chance. That is unpacked in paid travel and a no-show. No-shows as their own category are in no-show driver reviews. The equipment side is in fuel card never returned and in theft and a missing fuel card. The broader split between the empty chair and the walk-off is in why no-shows and abandoned trucks barely overlap.

How we count these shares, and why year totals cannot be compared, is on the methodology page.

Why recruiters mash them together

Because both waste a week and both look like “they didn’t work out.” Because both are mostly invisible on PSP, an MVR, and the Clearinghouse. Because a desperate desk wants one screen that catches every early loss.

One screen will not. The application before a no-show is urgency plus a thin last job plus a quiet packet. The application before a missing fuel card is a completed stint, a previous recovery, and a last carrier who already used fuel-card or didn’t-return language. If you only hunt for never-showed, you will hire the person who is pleasant at orientation and then leaves with the card. If you only hunt for the missing card, you will buy flights for people who have already done the empty-chair version to someone else.

The share of reviews mentioning a no-show ran 3.7% in 2018, 3.3% in 2019, 3.8% in 2020, 5.1% in 2021, 5.8% in 2022, 5.0% in 2023, 6.2% in 2024, and 4.9% in 2025. I stop that line at 2025. 2026 is still open.

Missing-equipment mentions ran 2.3% in 2018, 1.6% in 2019, 3.2% in 2020, 2.6% in 2021, 3.8% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023, 4.5% in 2024, and 3.8% in 2025. Both problems moved. They still do not sit in the same write-up.

What official reports see — and what they don’t

Neither population is what those reports were built to hold. A no-show is not a crash. A fuel card that never comes back is not a filing unless someone called it theft. A clean packet can sit on top of either failure. The difference is where the next clue lives.

For the never-starts, look at previous tickets and empty orientation days. For the missing-equipment files, look at previous recoveries, fuel-card language, and whether the last truck came back. Previous-employer forms help the second group more than the first, and they still fail often. The last desk may confirm dates and leave the story in a review instead of a form.

Drugs or alcohol are the exception that proves the split. They show up in 31.7% of no-show reviews. The official system that can catch a test event is pointed at the onboarding population more than at the driver who already had a card in their pocket. Do not let that make you treat a missing fuel card as a drug article. The data says the opposite.

I am not going to pretend this is an independent study. CDLScan is the source, and I write from the data they share. A no-show is common enough in what carriers bother to write down, a missing fuel card almost never rides along, and the packet you already run is silent on both.

What to do with two screens

Run two short checks, not one vague “will they stay.”

Before you buy a ticket or lock orientation: search the name for never showed, didn’t show, flight ticket, paid travel. Ask when they can start if the flight waits. That screen is for the empty chair.

Before you issue a fuel card or a unit: search the name for fuel card, return equipment, didn’t return, left equipment. Ask whether the last card and the last truck came back, and who recovered them. That screen is for the person who already sat in the seat.

If either history is already written down, stop and read it. Check the name on CDLScan before the spend. It takes less than a minute, and it is where both populations actually sit — usually in different write-ups.

Frequently asked questions

Does a 0.8% overlap mean a no-show never later keeps a fuel card?

No. Rare together is not impossible. It means that in the reviews carriers left on CDLScan, a no-show and missing equipment almost never share a paragraph. Do not run one screen and assume you covered both.

Why use lift instead of just the 0.8%?

Because 0.8% needs a baseline. Equipment or a fuel card never returned is 3.7% of all reviews, so chance would put it in about 3.7% of no-show reviews. 0.8% is about a fifth of that. Lift 0.21 is the short way to say “far below chance.”

Why is the other share 1.1%?

Because the base changed. 1.1% of missing-equipment reviews also mention a no-show. Same overlap, counted from the other side. Always name the denominator.

Which failure is more common in the reviews?

A no-show is in 5.3% of the reviews. Equipment or a fuel card never returned is in 3.7%. They are similar in size. They are not the same people.

Will a clean PSP tell me which type I have?

No. Both types are usually unfiled. A clean packet means the filed items are clean. It does not classify the next failure.

What should I ask on the reference call?

For a thin onboarding history: did you buy them a ticket, and did they arrive. For a completed stint: did the fuel card and the truck come back, and who recovered them. Those are different questions.

Where do I look the name up?

On CDLScan, before you buy the ticket or issue the card. The two populations are already written down. They are usually not written down together.